Following the culmination of the Margaret River Pro and the mid-season cut earlier this year, the highest placed Brazilian on tour was Italo Ferreira who sat sixteenth in the rankings. Gabriel Medina and Yago Dora were the only other South Americans left on the men’s CT, while brothers Miguel and Samuel Pupo, Caio Ibelli and Deivid Silva were all relegated to the Challenger Series.

The aptly named Brazilian storm which had dominated the men’s top ten rankings for years seemed to have passed. Fast forward three events to the end of the Vivo Rio Pro, the penultimate contest in the four-contest second half of the tour, before the WSL final five kicks off, and the ‘Storm’ has rebuilt and is looking to rain on the parade of those who were sitting comfortably in a final five position.

Most surfers on tour will be glad to see the back of Rio as the conditions were far from world class. However, the trend of Brazilians performing well in front of a raucous home crowd continued as Italo and Yago battled it out in the men’s final, with Ferreira taking home his second win of the season – both of which have come after the mid-season cut. The wonky Rio beach-breaks also facilitated Yago’s second final in a row and it’s obvious he is surfing more freely without the pressure of the cut, which he narrowly avoided.

Ferreira has looked in inspired form over the last few events; a win at Chopes and in Brazil has put him fourth in the rankings. The 2019 world champion seemed to have gone walkabout the past year and a half, finishing thirteenth in 2023 and starting this season off with a fifth, two ninths and two seventeenths. Not much has changed in the Brazilian’s approach, he still brings his full throttle go-for-broke attitude to every heat but everything seems to be clicking again. When you surf with the aggression and speed he does, there are fine margins between making waves and getting a big score, or falling and being left with nothing. Since the mid-year cut that high risk/high reward approach seems to have started working for him again.

Yago and Gabby now sit in fourth and eighth respectively. All three Brazilians are knocking on the door for a place in the final five. There’s a 7,620 point difference between Griffin Colapinto in second and Gabby heading into the Corona Fiji Pro. It’s a tight battle for fifth place as Ethan Ewing, Yago and Jordy Smith are all within 1,000 points of each other. To put that in perspective, a win is worth 10,000 points while a seventeenth earns you a measly 1,330 points. No one other than John John, who sits atop the rankings with a commanding 9,610 points lead over Griff, has secured their spot in the final five.

Although we shouldn’t dwell on the past, John would find it hard not to to be thinking of an era pre final five when, with that much of a lead, he would’ve almost wrapped up another world title. Some pundits and ex-pros suggest there should be another trophy for the surfer who is first past the post or ‘minor-premiere’, as other sporting codes call it, at the end of the regular season.

If John is still first after Fiji (quite likely), he potentially only has to surf twice at Trestles to claim the title.

The Brazilians will be brimming with confidence heading to Cloudbreak and I would back any of the them to make the final five. Gabby already has a win at Fiji to his name, while Italo has proven he can thrive in big barreling lefts by taking out the Chopes comp this season. Yago placed fifth in Tahiti this year too.

Griff, Ethan, Jack Robbo and Yago are yet to compete in Fiji which has not been on tour since 2016. Could a lack of competitive experience at Cloudbreak be a factor in deciding the final five? Lets not forget that Kelly is there as a wildcard and will happily upset anyone’s top five aspirations at one of his favourite waves in the world.

On the women’s side, it looks like Caity Simmers’ title to lose. The 18-year-old picked up her third victory of the season in Rio, after wins at Pipe and Bells. The Californian teenager holds a commanding lead in the rankings over Caroline Marks in second. It would take a poor result from Simmers in Fiji and for Marks to go deep into the contest to prompt a yellow jersey swap coming into Trestles.

While it’s obvious Caity has the raw talent to win a world title, there have been questions around her uniquely nonchalant approach to competition and how that attitude would stand-up when the pressure is on her or when she needs to grind out scores. However, three event wins in a single season would suggest those questions have been answered.

Caroline’s lethal backhand attack won her the world title at Trestles in 2023. On her way to victory she beat Caity during the finals event and it would be no surprise if it’s the two North Americans battling for the title on their home soil this year.

If Caity can claim her first world title, will that fire up Carissa and Steph to return to competition. In a similar vein to how Andy Irons’ dominance helped motivate Kelly Slater to come out of retirement ?

Elsewhere on the leaderboard, Sawyer Lindblad’s second place finish at Rio has given her a mathematical, outside chance of making the final five. It is a huge turn around for the CT rookie who narrowly avoided the cut earlier this season.

Brisa Hennessy, Molly Picklum, Gabriela Bryan, Johanne Defay and Tatiana Weston-Webb are all fighting for the rest of the final five spots. Both Brisa and Tati performed well and looked comfortable in big barrels at Chopes this season and if Cloudbreak goes XL, you’d back them to go far in the event.

Molly Picklum is also never shy when things get huge but since her second and first at Pipe and Sunset in consecutive events at the start of the season, she has remained consistent with four fifth place finishes in a row. However, the determined natural footer from Shelly beach has not been able to crack another semi or final.

Fiji makes a welcome return to the CT schedule after an eight year hiatus. Cloudbreak is exciting to watch with both big barrels and turn sections on offer. Throw in the drama of making the final five and you have the potential for a scintillating event.