Wade Carmichael wins and jumps 40 spots to 13th.
Felipe climbs 7 spots to 5th after his second place.
Zeke Lau finishes Haliewa 3rd and climbs 21 spots to 19th.
Dusty Payne comes 4th and jumps 20 spots to 17th.
Ryan Callinan makes the semis and climbs to = 9th.
That’s the most important news.
If you were to cancel the Vans World Cup Of Surfing at Sunset Beach this week, our 10 qualifiers for the 2016 WSL CT would be the same as two weeks ago, before the last event at Haliewa.
= 1st – Caio Ibelli (BRA) – 28,400
= 1st – Jack Freestone (AUS) – 28,400 (technically second on countback)
3rd – Kolohe Andino (USA) – 27,660
4th – Miguel Pupo (BRA) – 26,100
5th – Filipe Toledo (BRA) – 25,500
6th – Alejo Muniz (BRA) – 23,450
7th – Kanoa Igarashi (USA) – 23,350
8th – Alex Rebeiro (BRA) – 22,550
= 9th – Davey Cathels (AUS) – 21,300
= 9th – Ryan Callinan (AUS) – 21,300 (technically 10th on countback)
= 11th – Jeremy Flores (FRA) – 19,300
= 11th – Connor O’Leary (AUS) – 19,300 (technically 12th on countback)
The cut right now has blown out to Connor O’Leary, who is effectively in 12th position at this point in time.
Connor O’Leary will be hoping to squeeze everything into his final event at Sunset. Photo: WSLFelipe Toledo (5th) and Jeremy Flores in (11th) are double qualifiers, both are safe on the CT and won’t need their QS rankings to qualify.
The big mover inside the cut was Ryan Callinan, climbing from last guy qualifying in to 10th, the second last guy in.
This is where the whole game gets interesting, we have a whole new ball game outside the cut.
Here are the next 10 guys in line:
13th – Wade Carmichael (AUS) – 19,250
14th – Conner Coffin (USA) – 18,450
15th – Michael Rodrigues (BRA) – 17,900
16th – Stuart Kennedy (AUS) – 17,550
17th – Dusty Payne (HAW) – 16,700
18th – Nathan Yeomans (USA) – 16,000
19th – Ezekiel Lau (HAW) – 15,860
20th – Adam Melling (AUS) – 15,500
21st – Cooper Chapman (AUS) – 15,280
22nd – Soli Bailey (AUS) – 15,250
Narrabeen’s Davey Cathels has come close to qualifying before and knows what to expect at the pressure cooker end of the season. Photo: WSLIn an effort to be thorough I have done the numbers to work out what guys need to jump O’Leary and into the final qualifying position, as well as to jump Cathels and Callinan in 9th and be 3 places inside the cut, a reasonably safe place if history is any indicator.
This is where it gets interesting. The closest men to O’Leary are Wade Carmichael, Conner Coffin and Dusty Payne.
Carmichael is 50 points behind O’Leary and Flores. Wade blew minds at the Oakley Lowers Pro QS 10,000 earlier this year. Since then he has had somewhat of a shocker, making no more than one or two heats anywhere. As a result his low score is a mere 700 points. Wade starts Sunset in the second round and only needs to make one heat into the round of 64 to surpass 19,300 and make it inside the qualification cut. Any further rounds he makes will add to his total and increase what the men behind him need. If he makes the Quarterfinals or better, he will jump Cathels and Callinan in 9th and be moderately safe.
Avoca’s Wade Carmichael has created his own momentum after his recent win at Haleiwa. Photo: WSLBoth Coffin and Payne need to make the Quarterfinals to climb above O’Leary in 12th.
Coffin needs a 3rd in the Semis to jump above Cathels and Callinan in 9th, while Payne needs to make the Final at Sunset to do the same.
From here on out I will separate the requirements into two categories:
To jump O’Leary’s 19,300 and into the final spot in the cut.
Kennedy, Rodrigues, Yeomans and Lau need to make the Semi Finals.
Chapman, Bailey and Maxime Huscenot (FRA) need to place 3rd in the Semi Finals.
Mitch Coleborn (AUS), Wiggoly Dantas (BRA), Pat Gudauskas (USA), Tanner Hendrickson (HAW), Adam Melling (AUS), Joan Duru (FRA) and Evan Geiselman (USA) need a 4th place.
Deivid Silva (BRA), Hiroto Ohara (JPN) and Carlos Munoz (CRI) need to place 3rd.
Dion Atkinson (AUS), Sebastian Zeitz (HAW), Italo Ferreira (BRA), Tanner Gudauskas (USA), Ricardo Christie (NZ), Hizunome Bettero (BRA), Noe Mar McGonagle (CRI) and Jesse Mendes (BRA) need to place 2nd.
Tomas Hermes (BRA), Pedro Henrique (PRT), Keanu Asing (HAW), Brent Dorrington (AUS), Billy Stairmand (NZ), Mateia Hiquily (PYF), Santiago Muniz (BRA), Vasco Rebeiro (PRT), Mitch Crews (AUS) and Bino Lopes (BRA) need to win Sunset.
Newcastle’s Ryan Callinan is not stranger to juicy rights but will need to dig deep to hold onto his spot and gain safe passage onto the top flight tour. Photo: WSLThat is a lot of guys within striking range of O’Leary’s 19,300 and subsequent final place inside the qualifying bubble. The chances are that more than one man will jump O’Leary and that the more relevant number is the 21,300 of both Cathels and Callinan.
To climb past Cathels’ and Callinan’s 21,300 and into 9th position, 3 places inside the cut.
Kennedy and Rodrigues need a 4th place.
Yeomans and Lau need a 3rd place.
Chapman, Bailey, Huscenot, Coleborn, Dantas, Pat Gudauskas, Hendrickson, Melling and Duru need to a second place.
Geiselman, Silva, Ohara, Munoz, Atkinson, Zeitz, Ferreira, Tanner Gudauskas, Christie, Bettero, McGonagle and Mendes need to win.
Anyone south of Thomas Hermes in 41st on the ratings can’t exceed 21,300.
Long story short, mathematically there are a lot of guys in reach of qualifying.
History tells us that one 1-3 men will make this leap going into Sunset. It is hard to go past Carmichael, Coffin and Payne to tick the O’Leary last man in box. If one or more of them do, it is game on and heads may roll.
Incredibly whilst he is effectively in 10th place, 3 positions inside the cut, Cathels may be your first man out.
The CT’s top 22 after Pipe will decide the final cut number from the QS, so Sunset’s close won’t actually tell us the whole story. That is a bridge I will cross in a couple of weeks.
Until then, worldsurfleague.com has the Vans World Cup Of Surfing streaming live, rumor has it that we won’t see the event start until Sunday Hawaiian time.
