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Will Filipe add a second world title to his collection this weekend? (Photo: Pat Nolan/ WSL)

How Filipe Toledo Turned The Odds In His Favour

From lightweight outsider to almost unbackable favourite.

Reading Time: 3 minutes

I first saw Filipe surf in the Newcastle Surfest comp back in 2012. He was a skinny 16-year-old who he blew everyone away when he landed two massive airs on a very average wave in the final at Merewether. That he’d been doing the same thing all competition marked his name out for special interest (he lost that QS final due only to a silly interference).  

 The obvious comparison was with Gabriel Medina who had burst on the scene the previous year by winning two of his first three ‘CT events as a 17-year-old. When I mentioned the comparison to a friend I was taken aback a little when he said straight away, “I think Toledo is better… his airs are more whippy”. But, unlike Medina, when he joined the Dream Tour in 2013 he didn’t do much to set the world on fire during his first couple of seasons on tour (one semi-final finish notwithstanding). In fact it took until the start of 2015 for him to really deliver.  

Despite not being a punter I noticed TAB (Gamble Responsibly !) was running a book quoting Filipe as paying what looked like a very generous $21-1 to win a Snapper event with no swell on the horizon (perennial favourites Slater, Parko, Fanning and John John were all paying around 6 or 7 to one). So when Julian Wilson was no match for Toledo’s dizzying performance in the small wave final, Filipe had finally arrived on the biggest stage and the couple hundred bucks I won had made a real fan out of me.  

He won three events that season but only finished fourth as inconsistency and poor results in heavy waves plagued him for not just that season, but the next handful of years. He was known to be unbeatable in certain conditions (particularly small, rampy waves with short period swells that allowed him to catch multiple waves and toss ostentatious airs, knowing full well he’d get another shot shortly after) but without the full repertoire to really challenge Medina or John as king. He even had to watch on as not just Medina but fellow countrymen De Souza and Ferreira claimed world titles and gold medals in front of him, missing out on even a starting place at the Tokyo Olympics where, conditions would have found him extremely difficult to beat.  

Toledo carving his way to his first world title. (Photo by Pat Nolan/World Surf League)

But in the last few years the veritable tide has turned for the man with a huge lion head tattooed across his chest. Toledo’s rail attack is now as precise and powerful as a well-struck base note, the perfect compliment to his higher notes. He is now ultra consistent in almost all waves and the advent of a Grand Final day at his new home break of Trestles suits him just perfectly. He’s finished way ahead on points at the end of both the last two regular seasons and if there were doubters before, caning it this season when Gabriel and John were back to surfing in every single event must have quelled some doubts of even the most cynical of disbelievers. He has clearly been the most dominant competitive surfer in the world for the past two years. Given the volatile state of the WSL hierarchy who knows where the final five will be held next year, or if there will even be one. For now forces have conspired to make it the hour of Toledo and he has every chance of entering the hallowed territory reserved for those with more than one world title.    

To confirm this, a quick look at the odds for Trestles has Filipe in at a very slim $1.55 to win from Griffin Colapinto at $3.75 and Joao Chianca the long shot at $14. Far from the $21 he was paying at Snapper before he’d won a CT in 2015, he is now the clear favourite to win.  

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