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The moment is upon us. By this time next week, we’ll know who the 2023 world champions are, with the Ripcurl WSL Finals waiting period kicking off this weekend. Yes, we see the Instagram comments and are well aware that many of you find the Final Five format at Trestles ridiculous, and there’s definitely some merit to the critiques. However, despite the disenchantment with the system and the fact the viewing time runs through the middle of the night for fans Down Under, there’s still plenty to get psyched over. Ethan Ewing shocked the world this week, choosing to compete at Trestles despite carrying a severe back injury. Meanwhile, Caity Simmers has the opportunity to become the second rookie to win a world title, after Steph Gilmore made history in 2007. The waiting period starts off tonight (12:30 am AEST) and will end next week on the 16th of September.
Forecast
The WSL must feel like God has been playing games with them this year because, once again, the waves have been firing just before the waiting period. But, thankfully the WSL’s new best mate who goes by the name of Jova, is expected to do a solid for the surfing world.
Hurricane Jova is set to send solid lines bending into San Clemente this weekend with five to eight-foot walls predicted. The SSE Jova swell should start building early on Saturday (Sunday Oz time), and is forecasted to peak on Sunday (Monday Oz time).
The swell fades after the weekend until another SSW swell is expected later in the waiting period. Common sense suggests the WSL will probably want to have the contest on the weekend to attract the most fans possible, both online and at the beach. With this weekend forecasted to be solid, the world title showdown will most likely take place on Saturday (Early Sunday morning in Oz), or Sunday (Early Monday morning in Oz).
Here’s how we see the Final Five playing out. You could really flip a coin with all of them.
5 v 4
Men
Joao Chianca v Jack Robinson
The Volcom teammates will go to war in this dicy match-up. Joao, this year’s breakout performer, is slightly more dynamic in the rail-game department but Robbo’s experience and bullet-proof mindset narrowly gives him the edge in this one. However, he’ll need all his mental fortitude to block out the throng of screaming Brazilians rattling the cobblestones as they cheer on the two of their countrymen who’ve made the finals. No one is really calling Chianca to win, but he could surprise everyone with one of his inspired performances.
Pick : Jack
Women
Molly Picklum v Caity Simmers
These girls have been so impressive this year. Molly’s powerful rail game could really serve her well on Trestles’ long walls. Meanwhile, Caity’s variety and aerial ability will give her an edge against all her competitors. Caity’s won the three head-to-head match-ups against Molly this year. You’d expect her to win the fourth at Trestles.
Pick: Caity
4 v 3
Men
Jack Robinson v Ethan Ewing
This one will splinter Aussie fans. If Ethan wasn’t injured, this would probably be a more straight-forward pick for me. Ewing’s superior rail game would, in my opinion, trump Robbo’s slightly less fluent attack, at Trestles. Remember Ewing got the jump on Jack in the 2022 J-Bay final and will draw confidence from the memory. However, a fired-up Jack Robbo flying with momentum after his win at Chopes could cause problems. Expect Jack to use his aerial arsenal as a point of difference to get the judges thinking.
I still see Ethan pulling this one off.
Pick: Ethan
Women
Caity Simmers v Caroline Marks
An all USA duel between the nation’s most hyped surfing prodigies. There’s also a little east coast vs west coast rivalry in this one. Marks is from Florida (east coast) while Caity is an all Californian girl. With XL waves expected, Caroline’s scything backhand will be hard to beat. Simmers proved in Portugal, earlier this year, that she can handle the heavy water, but the bigger it gets the more difficult it becomes for Caity to use her aerial attack as a point of difference. It’s also an interesting grudge match between the Ozi coaches. Luke Egan will be calling the signals for Caroline while Caity has had Tommy Whitaker in her corner. Worth noting that Tommy’s words of wisdom helped Steph blitz the field in last year’s finals.
Pick: Caroline
3 v 2
Men
Griffin Colapinto v Ethan Ewing
Griffin’s hot chocolate hacks (with a marshmallow surprise) against Ethan’s melted-caramel carves. Aesthetically it should be a pleasure to watch for surf fans around the world. A fully-fit Griffin with his elite air game and local knowledge at Trestles makes him a formidable opponent. The fact the whole of San Clemente (and beyond) and his loyal 2-percenter teammates will be there to cheer for him gives him at least a 10% advantage. However, Griffin can be psychologically fragile and Ethan has the brooding air of the iceman who doesn’t change his tune for anyone.
Pick: Griffin
Women
Caroline Marks v Tyler Wright
Another high-level match-up between surfers who make few mistakes with the opportunities they are given. As an Aussie, it saddens me to pick Caroline, but it just feels like the momentum has shifted in her favour in the latter stages of the year. Coming in hot after a win at Teahupo’o on her forehand, Caroline will be just as happy to blaze on her backhand in front of an all-American crowd throwing the support her way.
Pick: Caroline
2 v 1 ( Best of 3)
Men
Griffin Colapinto v Filipe Toledo
Expect fireworks and a third heat decider. These two have faced off in some classic finals over the last couple of years – Portugal 2022 (Griff) El Salvador 2022 (Griff) Sunset 2023 ( Toledo ) and have met three times this year. Toledo took the win over Colapinto in the final at Hurley Pro in Oahu and Surf City El Salvador Pro, while Colapinto beat the Brazilian in the semi-final at Surf Ranch Pro. This duo has led the high-performance charge this year and have a dictionary of moves at their disposal on any given section. Both call Trestles home. Griff will have a roaring home crowd behind him. They haven’t seem a USA mainlander win since Slater in 2011, but The Brazilian cheer squad will match them for volume and passion. It will really come down to who gets the best waves and holds their nerve. I’m picking Griffin, but expecting a close call that will test the judges. Toledo has more speed through manoeuvres while Grif’ is perhaps slightly better at changing the angle of his attack. We hope they both peak in the final, pushing each other to a place where things get a little crazy.
Pick: Griffin
Women
Caroline Marks v Carissa Moore
It would be absolutely brutal for Carissa to lose again. It could very well be a changing of the guard with Caroline becoming the new face of women’s surfing. It’s been 26 years since a mainland USA surfer won a women’s title (Lisa Anderson 1997) and expect the star-spangled banner to fly proudly if Caroline claims it. But, I have to go with the five-time world champ. Carrisa’s surfing is so dependable and the decade-long experience of competing for world titles is invaluable. If she does win, it will be world title number six, inching her closer to Steph Gilmore’s record of eight. You can bet Carissa has that one in her sights.
Pick: Carissa
Sidenote: If Griffin wins in the men’s field and either Caroline or Caity wins out of the women, surely the WSL cannot host another world title showdown in California?
