Nine surfers danced upon the winner’s podium in 2017. This year, just four competitors have won eight of the nine events thus far, with thirty-two-year-old rookie Willian Cardoso sneaking the lone underdog victory from that greedy quartet of trophy-hoarders. Consistency too has played a vital role in how the ratings have aligned, with Italo Ferreira sitting out of title contention despite putting on two of the most electric winning performances in recent memory, thanks to an inability to carry his incredible form from one contest to the next.
So what do all these stats and summaries amount to? The fact that the 2018 world title will come down to just three men: Julian Wilson, Filipe Toledo and Gabriel Medina.
Although he’s been enjoying his best showing on tour since he qualified in 2011, it’s probably fair to say that many of us had dwindling hopes for a Jules world title as this season ground on. Consistency, as always, has been a thorn in the supremely gifted Sunshine Coaster’s side. Then he turns it around in France by toppling bitter rival Gabriel Medina in the semis and using his almost forgotten aerial repertoire to claim his second win of the season and put himself right back in contention. Talk about a way to boost your confidence coming into the final straight. History sits well with him here too, with the well-rounded natural-footer having claimed victory in both the shifty peaks of Peniche and the heaving gladiatorial arena that is Pipe. With just over four thousand points separating him from frontrunners Toledo and Medina, however, he’ll need to display a competitive grittiness that he’s yet to show in his career if he’s to stand any chance of claiming the world title he’s lusted after for so long.
Sitting in second, and with a talent so palpable it leaves even his most gifted peers awestruck when it’s in full swing, Filipe Toledo’s path to a maiden world title is both slightly easier and slightly more difficult than Julian’s. Sitting a mere grasshopper’s penis behind Medina after a slip-up in France, the one they call the ‘Flying Llama’ is right there in the title fight. And he’s won in Portugal. And he’s done it in typically mesmerizing fashion. And coming off a disappointing result in France, you’d have to expect him to hit back hard when that event gets underway in a day or two. But Pipe is another story. Heavy waves in general are an obstacle he’s yet to overcome, and considering that both of his opponents are two of the tour’s best in waves of consequence, one gets the sense that he’s going to have to prove himself once and for all if he’s to win a world title and silence his naysayers.
Statistically, all things point to Gabriel Medina being your 2018 world champ. He’s got the Jeep leader’s jersey, he’s won Portugal and is consistently good at Pipe. He can also draw on the experience of having been there and done it all before, something that must give him great confidence over his rivals. But he’s not invincible either. Especially when Julian Wilson’s involved. How many heavy clashes have those two had now? A shit-ton, and although I haven’t crunched any official numbers on it, my calculations tell me that Jules might have the slight nod over the Brazilian dark wizard. So there’s that, and there’s also the fact that over the past few years, despite showing moments of form so dominant it wouldn’t be out of place in an S&M film, he hasn’t been able to quite get the job done. Who knows how that sits with him? Might weigh a ton. Might not even register in his steely, ultra-competitive brain. But we’ll know soon enough.
So who’s your money on?
