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No more boardies and bikinis for the world’s best; it’s thick wetties and chapped lips as the World Surf League (WSL) set-up camp in Peniche for the third leg of the Championship Tour (CT). A successful winter of waves has ended in Portugal, and it’s been no different for the start of spring, with the pros welcomed to town with a week of pumping warm up-sessions. The Supertubos event is a fan favourite when the beach break lives up to its name, but this hasn’t been the case over the last few years. It’s been more of an air contest on the men’s side, while for the women, it’s been an event where goofy footers who possess an elite rail game have been victorious. We expect it to be different this year as there’s a storm with XL waves on the way to Peniche, opening the door for some outsiders to barrel-ride their way to victory. Here’s what we can expect from the MEO Ripcurl Portugal Pro, with the waiting period kicking off tonight. (March 8 – 16 Oz time)

MEO Ripcurl Pro Portugal Forecast

Pros were welcomed to Peniche last week with cracking conditions, and fortunately, this run of swell will continue into the comp as a storm is set to hit the Atlantic Ocean. The incoming west swell is forecasted to arrive on Thursday, bringing double-overhead waves to Supertubos. But the storm also comes with unfavourable onshore winds for the start of the event period. Fortunately, the winds are expected to settle down later in the week, and waves are meant to stick around for the majority of the waiting period. It’s shaping up to be prime Supertubos going into the weekend. Forecasters are expecting action on Friday, Saturday and Sunday. In the words of pretty much every human living on the planet these days… “lets go.”

Who does Supertubos favour? 

Men: As double-overhead waves are forecasted, it does kind of open the market up a bit more to those outside of the Brazilian storm and the well-known favourites. Despite this, I can see Gabe returning to the winning column here. If it goes XL, Joao Chianca could be a problem for his competitors as a man who has a thirst for below-sea-level pits. If there are opportunities for big barrels and punts, you must put yellow jersey holder Jack Robinson, John John and Griff (former champ) in the mix. I’d be missing a frontal lobe if I counted Italo and Filipe out too. 

Women: I’m going for the goofys, Tati Weston-Webb and Caroline Marks, both former champs that will be looking at Portugal as a must-do-well event as it favours the goofys. But world no.1 Molly Picklum’s notable barrel riding performances in Hawaii could continue into Portugal. Tyler and Carissa are always a threat, especially if the conditions get tricky.

If Supertubos becomes an ugly washing machine, which is a possibility, I do expect to see some surprises come finals day.

Surprises?

Men: I see the versatile skills of Ryan Callinan, Jordy Smith and Connor O’Leary paying dividends at the peaky A-Frame beach-break. They’re also some of the physically strongest on Tour, which will be an advantage if it becomes a washing machine. Wildcard and Portuguese local Frederico Morais has a chance to reminds us of his world-class surfing capabilities. Expect him to be fired up.

Women: This could be Caity Simmers’s breakout event. The chaos that comes with competing in Hawaii would have been a lot for the 17-year-old rookie, and she’d be more comfortable on tour heading to Portugal. We did get a sneak peek into her legit barrel-riding ability at Backdoor. Macy Callaghan tasted victory at Portugal in the Challenger Series last year, so that’ll give her confidence and possibly a push for a finals day result.

Match-Ups we wanna see?

Men: Italo v Griffin is a delicious match-up at pumping Supertubos. Clearly, their styles suit the Peniche beach break as both are former champs, but I predict that something crazy will go down if these two are pushing each other for a win. Imagine the cooked barrel-to-air combos these two are going to go for if the waves are pumping. 

Women: I wanna see another battle between Tati and Caroline, both former champs at the event and fellow goofy-footers. I also won’t be complaining if Carissa and Molly get a chance to battle it out in a double-up tube fest. You know Rissa will be hungry to kick Molly out of the top spot and distance herself as world number one.

Wildcards/ Injuries

Unfortunately, Johanne Defay is still out with a foot injury. The former world number three would have been favoured in this contest. Ramzi Boukhiam and Jadson Andre are still recovering from injuries they suffered in Hawaii and will give Portugal a miss. 

The WSL has rewarded French surfer Tiago Carrique the wildcard due to his status as number one on the European Qualification Series. While Frederico Morias, Yolanda Hopkins and Teresa Bonvalot have been given the local wildcards. Carlos Munoz and Joan Duru are also filling in as injury replacements.

Aussie favourite Sophie McCulloch makes her debut on the CT after recovering from a foot injury before event no.1 at Pipe. Soph’s got to perform exceptionally well at the next three events to make the Mid-Year Cut and avoid counting on the WSL to give her an injury wildcard for the rest of the year. We know how that went down for our boy Liam O’Brien last year.

Important info for Aussies: AEST is 11 hours ahead of Peniche time, so it will be prime TV to watch after dinner; no need to feel guilty about watching it at work. The daily ‘first calls ‘will be around 6:30 pm AEST.

MEO Rip Curl Pro Portugal Women’s Opening Round Match-ups:

Heat 1: Tyler Wright (AUS), Bettylou Sakura Johnson (HAW), Teresa Bonvalot (POR)
Heat 2: Stephanie Gilmore (AUS), Caitlin Simmers (USA), Sophie McCulloch (AUS)
Heat 3: Carissa Moore (HAW), Isabella Nichols (AUS), Yolanda Hopkins (POR)
Heat 4: Molly Picklum (AUS), Caroline Marks (USA), Sally Fitzgibbons (AUS)
Heat 5: Brisa Hennessy (CRC), Lakey Peterson (USA), Courtney Conlogue (USA)
Heat 6: Tatiana Weston-Webb (BRA), Gabriela Bryan (HAW), Macy Callaghan (AUS)

MEO Rip Curl Pro Portugal Men’s Opening Round Match-ups:

Heat 1: Ethan Ewing (AUS), Kelly Slater (USA), Carlos Munoz (CRC)
Heat 2: Griffin Colapinto (USA), Samuel Pupo (BRA), Maxime Huscenot (FRA)
Heat 3: Italo Ferreira (BRA), Connor O’Leary (AUS), Ezekiel Lau (HAW)
Heat 4: Caio Ibelli (BRA), Liam O’Brien (AUS), Tiago Carrique (FRA)
Heat 5: Jack Robinson (AUS), Barron Mamiya (HAW), Joan Duru (FRA)
Heat 6: Filipe Toledo (BRA), Ryan Callinan (AUS), Frederico Morais (POR)
Heat 7: Miguel Pupo (BRA), Seth Moniz (HAW), Michael Rodrigues (BRA)
Heat 8: Kanoa Igarashi (JPN), Yago Dora (BRA), Jackson Baker (AUS)
Heat 9: John John Florence (HAW), Matthew McGillivray (RSA), Kolohe Andino (USA)
Heat 10: Joao Chianca (BRA), Nat Young (USA), Ian Gentil (HAW)
Heat 11: Leonardo Fioravanti (ITA), Callum Robson (AUS), Jake Marshall (USA)
Heat 12: Gabriel Medina (BRA), Jordy Smith (RSA), Rio Waida (INA)