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Can Slater get through the visa hurdles and keep his spot on tour this year?

WILD PREDICTIONS FOR THE 2022 CT

The Greatest Show on Earth is about to kick-off and we’re getting excited
Reading Time: 7 minutes

The best part about every new season is that it’s a hard reset. A re-do. A clean slate and whatever wild prophecies people have seem like a sensible, educated call. 

It’s an anything-kind-of-goes scenario that makes pundits pounce at the opportunity because it makes them, or literally, anyone, look like they are half-decent at doing their job. 

With this in mind, it’s now or never for my unsolicited, baseless preview of the 22 Dream Tour, partly because Pipeline’s waiting period is fast approaching, but also, this is literally my only chance to sound smart. Sophisticated even!

So without further ado, it’s time to roll back the curtain and look at possible upsets, surprises, cuts and hypothetical world champs headlining the arena of electric bikes (and possibly the greatest A-frame in surfing).

Welcome, to the greatest show on earth (no, not Squid Game).

The WSL has copped it in recent years, but 2022 might be the year they get the appreciation they deserve. Pictured: Erik Logan (E-Lo).

The World Surf League

The waters around the WSL have been murky in recent years. A combination of recent faux pas, a guy called E-Lo, and a scattergun WSL media-machine has created a few running jokes – some justified, others blown out of proportion. But this year is different, and I believe that the WSL is about to win the hearts of some of its harshest critics.

See, it’s easy to throw poison from the outside in. It’s even easier to have opinions about decisions or people when those opinions imply absolutely no consequences. They are just hot air, and hot air didn’t lead to significant milestones such as equal pay, identical tour stops for men and women, a new and improved qualifying system or necessary investments to keep the dream tour alive. But, actions did, which calls for a round of applause where a round of applause is due.

Copping shit from people who can barely tie their shoelaces is one thing, but copping shit while working on tremendous change behind the scenes is something that needs to be recognized, and 2022 might just be the season where it all comes together for the WSL.

G-Land 1995, photographed by Eric Diamond. The tour returns to G-Land in May.

The Tour

The decision to start the tour back in Hawaii is fu%$#ng genius! Kicking off the season with arguably the main even at Pipe might just get all the chatter in the media, but upon a closer look, it’s how incredibly balanced the different lineups are that should get all the notoriety here.

Let’s not forget, for the first time ever, women and men will compete at the same locations throughout the year. Even playing fields for the world’s best, but it remains to be seen if the girls actually get equal opportunities at Pipe or J-bay or, let’s say, Tahiti, or if they keep going down the path of sending out the guys when it pumps, and let the girls have the rest as they did in recent years. Remember Snapper 2019, anyone?! Probably not. 

Anyway, I’d hate to see the WSL nail the implementation of bringing the two tours closer together but fumble in its execution. Nevertheless, I’m a glass is half-full kind of guy, and I predict; the girls will be sending it!

No more Maui Pro. No more on-shore Narrabeen burgers. No more Surf Ranch. It looks like whoever was behind designing the schedule for 2022 put some brain-power into the process and created what is perhaps the most balanced lineup we’ve ever had. 

Out of ten events (the WSL Finals not included), two are world-class lefts, four are classic righthanders, and the remaining stops offer surfers the opportunity to go left or right at various degrees of quality, to be fair.

But perhaps the most significant change was the decision to bring back the mid-season cut-off to add some oomph to the whole experience! Probably some “experts” might spit at their screens reading this, but re-introducing the mid-season cull after the first five events makes sense for various reasons. 

For starters, it creates drama right from the beginning. And let’s be honest, it’s the drama we all secretly crave. It adds pressure to perform well right out of the gates and, perhaps more importantly, the name change from ASP to WSL in 2015 finally makes sense! For real, what kind of league with no relegation or promotion scenarios was this?!

Cutting the field in half (both men and women) after the first five events also emphasizes the importance of the new and improved Challenger Series and the re-qualification picture for next year.

or, for the lack of better words, as the WSL communicated it in their official presser;

By reducing the men’s and women’s fields from 36 and 18 to 24 and 12, respectively, at the season’s midway point, events can run within the most optimal swell cycles at locations like G-Land and J-Bay, as well as ensure that the stars of the sport meet head to head more frequently.

Makes sense so far? Good. If not; here’s a look at the 2022 schedule

  • Billabong Pro Pipeline– January 29 – February 10
  • Hurley Pro Sunset Beach presented by Shiseido– February 11 – 23
  • MEO Pro Portugal– March 3 – 13
  • Rip Curl Pro Bells Beach –April 10 – 20
  • Margaret River Pro– April 24 – May 4

Mid-Season Cut. 18 men out of 36, and 12 women out of 24, will head into the second half of the season.

  • Quiksilver / ROXY Pro G-Land – May 28 – June 6
  • Surf City El Salvador Pro presented by Corona – June 12 – 20
  • Oi Rio Pro presented by Corona– June 23 – 30
  • Corona Open J-Bay – July 12 -21
  • Tahiti Pro – August 11 – 21

The top 5 surfers from both tours will battle it out for the undisputed men’s and women’s World Titles

  • Rip Curl WSL Finals, Lower Trestles, CA USA– September 8 – 16

Speaking of Trestles, I’m sure more “experts” are appalled by the decision of the WSL to bring the Finals back to California after promising to exactly not do that. 

But why fix what’s not broken? Ratings were through the roof. Waves pumped. World Champs were crowned in a dramatic fashion. So… sit down, please.

Aussie rookie Callum Robson hopes to ruffle a few feathers on tour this year. Photo: Swilly

Rookies

The 2022 season will complement one of the biggest Rookie classes ever – twelve guys and six girls, to be exact. We’ll see some familiar faces making a comeback like Nat Young or Brisa Hennessy, but 14 true rookies will be making their debut at Pipe. How wild is that?

The rookie class is solid but not great, missing blockbuster names (other than perhaps Bettylou Sakura Johnson) or a clear Rookie of The Year candidate. But not all is lost. Our long-lost son Connor O’Leary is back on tour with a new sponsor, and in my opinion will be most definitely avoiding the cull heading into G-Land. 

So does Imaikalani deVault, Carlos Munoz, Bettylou Sakura Johnson and Gabriela Bryan. For the rest? I see it wide open, and it could go either way. Some rookies will fall off the tour after the Australian leg, but others will surprise and ruffle some feathers (and a few egos).

Also, with the Gabriel Medina ripple effect in full swing, we shall see who will move up next and take his spot on tour. 

Your 2022 Rookie Class

Women

  • Gabriela Bryan (HAW)
  • Brisa Hennessy (CRI)
  • Bettylou Sakura Johnson (HAW)
  • Caitlin Simmers (USA)
  • India Robinson (AUS)
  • Luana Silva (HAW)

WSL Replacement

  • Bronte Macaulay (AUS)

Men

  • Ezekiel Lau (HAW)
  • Liam O’Brien (AUS)
  • Jake Marshall (USA)
  • Callum Robson (AUS)
  • Samuel Pupo (BRA)
  • Nat Young (USA)
  • Imaikalani deVault (HAW)
  • Lucca Mesinas (PER)
  • Joao Chianca (BRA)
  • Jackson Baker (AUS)
  • Carlos Munoz (CRI)

WSL Replacement

  • Matthew McGillivray (ZAF)

Five Bold Predictions

  1. No *big name* other than Slater will fall off tour halfway through the season (more on that later)
  2. Steph Gilmore won’t make the Top 5 WSL Finals
  3. Filipe will surprise in Hawaii
  4. Imaikalani deVault will win ROTY
  5. We will crown a new female world champion this year

Heartbreaks

My initial heartbreak sounds like a piss in the park in comparison to the bombshell of Gabriel Medina taking an indefinite leave from the tour. However, for inclusion’s sake, I had Kelly Slater getting the cull before heading into G-Land due to, well, politics. 

Without getting into it, the to-jab-or-not-to-jab debate has been ripe as ever, which has surviving-the-cut implications. With two out of 5 events in OZ, and Kelly’s dilemma already well documented, the GOAT essentially has three remaining events to avoid the boot for the second half of the season.

Now, some of you might recall that Kelly re-qualified for the 22 tour with only three scoring events under his belt in 2021. So technically, he is capable of doing just that, but this isn’t 2021. This isn’t a shortened, Covid-infested compromise which means that surfing three events in 21 vs. surfing three events does not hold the same weight.

Anyway, enough from the GOAT already. He’ll be fine. He’ll be back next year and probably the years after until 2033 too.

Let’s move on to the news that well and truly shattered my heart. Gabriel Medina announced to his 9.5 million Insty followers that he’d be taking an indefinite leave from the tour to take care of his mental health.

A legendary move from the 3x world champ that deserves nothing but respect. But this is huge! Whether you like it or not, Gabby is currently the best competitive surfer on the planet. If 2021 was any indication, it’s not even close. So, whenever you have the top guy and current world champ walking away at the zenith of his career, it hurts from a fan’s perspective. A lot! This is some Michael Jordan / Bjorn Borg-type shit!

But again, for him to put his well-being first and forego the chance at winning another title despite being fully aware that he can probably smoke the rest of the field will go down as my favourite moment of the 2022 season. It might be premature, but I’m calling it. 

Kolohe ‘Brother’ Andino is Sunny’s darkhorse pick for the men’s side of the draw.

Darkhorse

On the men’s side, Brother might just take it all the way! Reckless isolation has made me realise how good Kolohe Andino really is. Reckless Isolation also made me realise how young Kolohe still is. O’Neill seems to think the same way, rewarding Andino with a 5-year contract and a bonus check if he wins the title.

On the women’s tour, a change of the guard is happening. Caroline Marks will win the whole damn thing. Mark (see what I did there) my words.

The Main Event

I already went out on a limb when I said that I have my money on Caroline winning the world title in 2022. While Carissa is still the best female surfer on the planet, I think Caroline has a higher ceiling, and a higher ceiling might just be what the women’s tour needs to shake things up.

Predicting the men’s world champ is much harder. My heart wants Filipe, my head says John John, my intuition points at Italo while my impulsive, reckless self thinks Brother or Griffin or maybe still Gabby?!

There you have it. See you in a few days at Pipe!

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Bi-monthly delivery of Tracks Magazine to your doorstep: 6 issues per year

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10% off everything in the Tracks Print shop

Unlimited digital access to Tracks’ Classic Issues from the 70’s, 80’s & 90’s (300+ magazines)

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Unlimited access to Tracks’ classic surf films

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MONTHLY PREMIUM SUBSCRIPTION

All you can eat digital & print

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Billed Monthly

Bi-monthly delivery of Tracks Magazine to your doorstep: 6 issues per year

Bi-monthly Tracks digital magazine to your inbox: 6 issues per year

10% off everything in the Tracks Print shop

Unlimited digital access to Tracks’ Classic Issues from the 70’s, 80’s & 90’s (300+ magazines)

Unlimited access to Tracks’ Premium Features

Unlimited access to Tracks’ classic surf films

Exclusive partner offers & discounts

Entry into bimonthly subscriber prize draws

ANNUAL DIGITAL SUBSCRIPTION

Digital magazine only

$34.99

Billed Annually

Bi-monthly Tracks digital magazine to your inbox: 6 issues per year

10% off everything in the Tracks Print shop

Unlimited digital access to Tracks’ Classic Issues from the 70’s, 80’s & 90’s (300+ magazines)

Unlimited access to Tracks’ Premium Features

Unlimited access to Tracks’ classic surf films

Exclusive partner offers & discounts

Entry into bimonthly subscriber prize draws

MONTHLY DIGITAL SUBSCRIPTION

Digital magazine only

$2.99

Billed Monthly

Bi-monthly Tracks digital magazine to your inbox: 6 issues per year

10% off everything in the Tracks Print shop

Unlimited digital access to Tracks’ Classic Issues from the 70’s, 80’s & 90’s (300+ magazines)

Unlimited access to Tracks’ Premium Features

Unlimited access to Tracks’ classic surf films

Exclusive partner offers & discounts

Entry into bimonthly subscriber prize draws

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Unmistakable and iconic, the Tracks covers from the 70s & 80s are now ready for your walls.

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