It never ceases to amaze me what it takes to have so many waves breaking across perfectly manicured reefs, points and shifting beach breaks, all around the globe, at this particular juncture of our planet’s life cycle.

So many of these surf breaks have been molded by combined forces of nature. Firstly, by major events such as volcanic eruptions and earthquakes then by slow moving events such as sea level changes and billion-year-old plate shifts and drifting continents. Only then do the erosive and corrosive forces of every day nature kick in to shape and mold all these surf breaks into the perfection we see posted as surf movies on a daily basis via Instagram.

These breaks are formed over millions of years. Some come and go in more volatile zones such as Indonesia and around the Pacific Oceans ring of fire. For example, when Joe Engel and Thornton Fallander surfed Nias in the late 70’s it was definitely an almond shaped barrel. After the earthquake in the early 2000s the reef was raised a metre or so, turning it into the square bottomed cylinders that Xavier Huxtable stood in for perfect 10’s in the recent Nias Pro.

I have always been fascinated by the massive events that shaped our world. During the last mini ice age 10,000 years ago, where were the Neanderthals surfing? To my caveman thinking, an ice age would dramatically lower the sea levels in every ocean. Proof of this is the discovery of ancient city structures below the Mediterranean Sea.

Conversely, and for future generations adversely, a significant warming of the planet would lead to sea level rises. The primary causes that bookend both extremes are probably a combination of elements, perhaps with one big event creating a tipping point. Records only capture partial human history, which is a nanosecond of the earth’s history. Scientists have to turn to archaeological digs and the study of sediment layers in cliffs to learn the origins of ice ages and planetary warming.

They’re cycles of nature that are challenging to quantify. It may be a combination of two of Earth’s super volcanoes going off in relative proximity to each other that led to what we understand to be the equivalent of a nuclear winter, blocking the sun, cooling the planet dramatically for the duration, creating a tipping point that took a thousand years to reverse.

While Earth’s cooling and warming are natural fluctuations driven by combined forces that would be considered extreme, there is no doubt the industrial revolution has kicked up a bit of dust, most of which settles and is eventually absorbed by the planets dominant feature – our oceans.

In early August 2024 the mean average global temperature of the ocean was measured at 18 degrees Celsius, the warmest on record. I guess it shouldn’t be such a shock considering how much carbon and other ingredients the oceans are absorbing. The question begs, what is the tipping point of runaway ocean warming?

Researchers point to even a tenth of a degree as being a huge incremental increase in our ocean’s temperature. The brilliantly sobering Tracks pieces by Dr Simon Bradshaw; Code Blue – Our Oceans in Crisis and Josh Kirkmans Line in the Sand call to arms highlight the reality of how critical the health of the ocean is to all life on the blue planet.

What surfers never really think about is the very effect a warming ocean has on our precious wave quality. Apart from the odd tremor and volcanic eruption the world’s surf breaks have been happily peeling away in a relatively stable period. When one considers that Duke Kahanamoku gifted surfing to Australia in 1915 it was offshore and nobody out for many millennia previous to Dukes coming.

Perhaps the existential threat is the vast ice sheets of Antarctica and Greenland melting, not to mention retreating glaciers and whatever’s going on north of the Arctic Circle. We don’t hear much about Antarctica, many papers by the dedicated men and women who diligently research, record and report findings to governments are rarely publicised. 

The most unknown is what’s happening underneath Antarctica, where the ice is particularly sensitive to any change in ocean temperature. This is called the grounding zone, where the ground ice meets the sea. Marine scientists predict that this is exactly where any tipping point caused by a warming ocean will occur. 

Talk about out of sight out of mind. Even a partial collapse of these ice sheets will have a knock on effect regarding sea level rises. It’s not inconceivable that 90% of all perfect surf breaks would be wiped out. We are not talking about a King Tide here, in the worst case scenario scientists are talking about a three to seven metre rise, quite a high tide. That is a bleak outlook but the only thing stopping it is if the warmer water does not reach the Poles and the whole calamity just quietly goes away.

Consider how sensitive many of the famous breaks like Pipeline, Teahupo’o, the Mentawai’s and the Maldives are. There are places in the world like Cornwall and Broome that experience tidal fluctuations of eight to ten metres and handle it four times a day, but most places would go under with just a metre of extra water. 

I think back to how fortunate surfers have been for the last 60 plus years. An era of discovery and adventure has fulfilled dreams way beyond our collective imagination. Waves with perfect peel angles, seasons of predictability for annual pilgrimages, decade after decade, are by now the norm.

What could possibly go wrong? On an extremely depressive note, imagine a scenario where the whole surfing experience, lifestyle and culture is wrapped up in a 100 year bubble of perfection (1960-2060) and then submerged under the waves themselves.

You may see this as unnecessarily alarmist; however we already see how surf breaks are affected by lunar cycles and flooding water that empties out of coastal river systems. Nobody seems to seriously consider what happens if the bathtub fills and today’s highest tides become the new low tide. 

I am not talking about five years down the track but I do wonder what another 30 or 40 years of consistent and accelerated ice melting will do, just saying! So I leave you with the best advice the great Nat Young gave me; Surf your brains out.